Video: Don Harrold's 2011 Silver Target of $17.50

Don Harrold of the Day Trade Show, just reposted Silver VS Inflation, a video from 12-29-2011 where he calls into the question the notion that holding silver protects against inflation over the long-term. That certainly is a controversial notion for many in the silver community.

Equally of interest however, is his target price for silver - based on inflation - of $17.50. That target is based on government inflation figures which, for many, automatically makes it suspect. Nevertheless, Harrold makes the argument that government twists inflation figures - as other statistics - whichever way that most benefits itself whether upwards or downwards. Not an argument you hear every day, but then Harrold doesn't always look at silver, or other investments, the way others do.

Even if you don't agree with what he says, Harrold almost always presents a different perspective that will make you think about what you believe and why.

Related articles

• Don Harrold - Long Silver In Spite Of The Hype
• Silver's Next Leg Lower Starts Now

USD Index, TIPS Could Point to Gold, Silver Bottom

Rahool, of the AltInvestorshangout, posits that a USD Index level of 89 and a 10-Year Treasury Inflation Indexed Security, Constant Maturity at 2 percent will signal the price bottom for gold and silver.

Gold Bottom

Beavis and Butt-head fighting. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

It would be too easy here to string a bunch of double entendres together about gold's bottom. First, why are you looking at gold's bottom? Where are your manners? Gold Bottom - sounds a bit like a James Bond Villain reject. But ("Heh, heh, heh - he said Butt!" [a la Beavis and Butthead]) many holding gold are wondering, "Where is gold's bottom?"Apparently, even bankers spend a lot of time thinking about that golden bottom. Via Zero Hedge: Citi: Are Gold And Silver Finding A Bottom? 

Our original target for this Gold correction was $1,260, which was the target of the double top. This would also have resulted in the same high to low move on a percentage basis as seen in March – October 2008.

Gold has overshot that target, though only slightly (the 2008 high to low correction was 34% while this one has been 36%). The bottoming process in 2008 can still serve as a template for what might still come for Gold:

• After rallying through September-October 2008, Gold made one final push down to a low 7.4% lower than the previous one
• After rallying through April, Gold has made a push lower and similar move to the last one in 2008 would suggest a bottom would be put in at $1,224. The low so far has been $1,221 and consolidation seems to be taking place.

However, if the current decline resembles the 1974-1976 decline rather than the 2008 one, then:

The high to low correction during that time was 44% and a similar correction this time would suggest a Gold price closer to the $1,050 area. The timing would be closer in similarity as well as the correction in the 1970s took place over 1 year and 8 months whereas this one has already taken place over 1 year and 10 months (meanwhile the 2008 correction lasted only 7 months). 

But, you're probably not reading this just to see a bunch of quotes from Zero Hedge. You're wondering, what's the bottom line. OK, here it is:

• $3,400 - $3,500 gold by 2016
• $100 silver by 2016

So, while it may be in poor form to stare at gold's bottom for too long, enjoy it while it lasts because that golden bottom may not be around for long.

SLV Stochastics: RSI Double Bottom Forming?

Don Harrold points out that a double bottom in the RSI of the SLV appears to be forming. While it hasn't formed yet, it does look like a definite possibility. He believes that the silver price will drop more and plans to buy more physical metal should it reach $17.50 and again if it reaches $16.50.