Consensus on Gold Price Low Emerging?

Citigroup (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Over the past few days it seems that a consensus low gold price is emerging.

We discussed in Gold Bottom the analysis from Citi:

However, if the current decline resembles the 1974-1976 decline rather than the 2008 one, then:

The high to low correction during that time was 44% and a similar correction this time would suggest a Gold price closer to the $1,050 area. The timing would be closer in similarity as well as the correction in the 1970s took place over 1 year and 8 months whereas this one has already taken place over 1 year and 10 months (meanwhile the 2008 correction lasted only 7 months). 

 Then there was Gary Wagner of The Gold Forecast and $1030 Gold:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMpBQxr5nuA

We followed up with Randomness, Gold and Life which pointed to a somewhat random link - If this is the Gold Bottom, it's Totally Random:

So is this the bottom in precious metals? Possibly. But I really doubt it….

Those 1150s seem to be a logical area. We’ve seen support there in the past. And the measured moves from the recent triangle, as well as the big 2011-2013 topping pattern take you into that area. I personally would be much more interested down there.

Then there was Louise Yamada charting $1155 to $1180 gold.

And today two more interesting observations - first from Zero Hedge - Is the Low in Place for Gold:

In 1976 the move lower in Gold overshot the 55 month moving average by about 14%

A similar move this time would equate to about $1,185 compared to a low so far of $1,181

The 55 month moving average stands at $1,379

The 200 week moving average stands at $1,459

IF and when we start to overcome these levels from $1,322 to $1,459 our conviction of a bottom being in place will grow. While we remain below these levels (especially if the Equity market continues to remain robust) we cannot rule out the danger that we could get another move lower.  

In that respect we would remain focused on the 1975-1976 correction which if replicated could suggest as low as $1,075 

And from Sunshine Profits:

Gold could initially decline to the lower border of the trend channel and if it does, a pullback will likely follow. However, since the support line is declining, the support is currently lower than last week – at about $1,150. The strongest support is seen slightly below the $1,100 level where two major support lines intersect.

Of course, the above sampling is far too small to be considered a "consensus". But even if it were, that wouldn't guarantee these "predictions" on the future price of gold are correct. Still, it's interesting that they range anywhere from a low end of $1030 all the way up to the $1155 to $1185 range. Time will tell how accurate these attempts to divine the price level that will hold for now.

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• Citi: Are Gold And Silver Finding A Bottom?